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id="owg8q0a" class="e_container-6 s_layout"> <div id="owg8q0a" class="cbox-6-0 p_item"><h1 class="e_h1-10 s_subtitle"> 電力現(xiàn)貨市場中的反直覺現(xiàn)象(三)：交易重點是中長期而非現(xiàn)貨 </h1><div id="owg8q0a" class="e_container-3 s_layout"> <div id="owg8q0a" class="cbox-3-0 p_item"><p class="e_text-5 s_body"> 發(fā)布時間： </p></div> <div id="owg8q0a" class="cbox-3-1 p_item"><P class="e_timeFormat-4 s_title">2024-12-16 09:57</P></div> </div><div id="owg8q0a" class="e_richText-11 s_title"> <link rel="stylesheet" /><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:0px;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">在<a style="background-color:transparent;color:rgb(21, 101, 192);text-decoration:none;" target="_blank">電力現(xiàn)貨市場</a>環(huán)境下，很多人自然而然地認(rèn)為現(xiàn)貨交易是重點，但事實上中長期交易才是電力現(xiàn)貨市場交易工作的關(guān)鍵。</p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;"><strong style="font-weight:bolder;">交易報價邏輯方面：</strong></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;"><strong style="font-weight:bolder;">現(xiàn)貨是物理交易、更簡單，中長期是金融交易、更復(fù)雜</strong></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">現(xiàn)貨交易指日前、日內(nèi)與實時等窗口的交易品種，主要根據(jù)市場主體的報價結(jié)果，決定機組開停機計劃、發(fā)電出力與用電負(fù)荷水平，中標(biāo)結(jié)果需要物理執(zhí)行。</p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">中長期交易是多年、年、月、周、多日交易的統(tǒng)稱，在現(xiàn)貨市場中的作用是風(fēng)險管理，需要根據(jù)對未來的價格預(yù)測進(jìn)行交易。</p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">很明顯，基于實際成本與電力供需（不考慮聯(lián)盟、自律、市場力需要監(jiān)管的特殊情況）的現(xiàn)貨交易邏輯要更簡單，難度并不高；而基于未來交割期價格預(yù)測的中長期交易，既要考慮價格變化，又要考慮電量波動，另外還要考慮在不同交易窗口的交易比例分配，交易邏輯既可以是控風(fēng)險穩(wěn)價格，也可以是跨期套利，復(fù)雜度明顯更高。</p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;"><strong style="font-weight:bolder;">信息透明度方面：</strong></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;"><strong style="font-weight:bolder;">現(xiàn)貨交易信息多且一致性強、難度低，中長期交易信息少且偏差大、難度高</strong></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">在開展現(xiàn)貨交易時，由于交易提前的時間很短，且市場運營機構(gòu)披露了大量電力供需、量價、檢修與停運信息，市場的信息透明度較高，發(fā)用兩側(cè)各市場主體對價格漲跌的判斷比較容易接近一致，不會存在大量的博弈機會，因此交易動機與動作也就會比較明確。</p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">但中長期交易一方面市場運營機構(gòu)掌握的信息與披露的信息都很少，另一方面由于交易窗口與交割日期之間相隔時間很長，各種提前公布的預(yù)測信息也存在很大的偏差。由于市場主體掌握的信息多少不一樣，對市場未來價格判斷不一致，反而導(dǎo)致有人愿意買、有人愿意賣。因此為了規(guī)避現(xiàn)貨價格波動風(fēng)險，市場主體有意愿開展中長期交易，信息不一致也更容易達(dá)成電量成交，動機與動作都會更復(fù)雜。</p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">另外，中長期交易需要對自身的發(fā)用電量進(jìn)行提前預(yù)測，而隨著分布式與新能源的發(fā)展，這也是一件難度越來越高的事情。這樣導(dǎo)致中長期交易不僅要考慮價格波動，還需要考慮電量波動，復(fù)雜度上升了一個維度。</p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;"><strong style="font-weight:bolder;">作用定位方面：</strong></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;"><strong style="font-weight:bolder;">現(xiàn)貨交易是形成價格安排生產(chǎn)、重在短期，中長期交易是發(fā)現(xiàn)價格指引生產(chǎn)、重在長期</strong></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">邊際定價機制形成反映時間、空間價值的現(xiàn)貨價格，實質(zhì)上是一種短期運行效率層面的優(yōu)化。</p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">中長期交易重在通過流動性市場中高頻的交易，更好地發(fā)現(xiàn)與預(yù)判現(xiàn)貨價格，并通過中長期交易價格給發(fā)用電主體提供投資、生產(chǎn)與經(jīng)營引導(dǎo)，從而為電力系統(tǒng)的安全經(jīng)濟(jì)運行提供更加充足的長期資源保障，本質(zhì)上是長期層面的投資、改造與檢修優(yōu)化。</p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">因此從潛在優(yōu)化空間來說，中長期交易可發(fā)揮的余地要更大一些。</p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;"><strong style="font-weight:bolder;">交易規(guī)模方面：</strong></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;"><strong style="font-weight:bolder;">現(xiàn)貨交易小且窗口少，中長期交易大且窗口多</strong></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">由于現(xiàn)貨是生產(chǎn)型交易，因此交易規(guī)?；揪褪菍嶋H的發(fā)電規(guī)模或者用電規(guī)模（經(jīng)常說現(xiàn)貨是5%，這個僅僅對用戶側(cè)具有結(jié)算意義），并且現(xiàn)貨針對每一個標(biāo)的電量只有1-2次交易機會，操作次數(shù)不多。</p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">而隨著新能源的發(fā)展，中長期交易越來越多地只有買方和賣方，而模糊了發(fā)電與用電。發(fā)電可以賣、超賣了也可以回購，用電可以買，超買了也可以賣，且發(fā)用雙方都可以進(jìn)行套利交易，因此國外典型市場中長期交易規(guī)模是現(xiàn)貨交易規(guī)模的4-5倍。在我國電力現(xiàn)貨市場初期，由于存在中長期電量持倉約束，這反而在很大程度上限制了中長期交易的流動性，導(dǎo)致交易規(guī)模上不去。但即使如此，中長期累計交易量一般也是要大于現(xiàn)貨交易規(guī)模（或者說實際發(fā)用電量規(guī)模）。</p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">另外，針對任何一個交易標(biāo)的（現(xiàn)貨市場中一般是小時電量），中長期交易有多個交易窗口可以開展交易，因此操作次數(shù)往往也要多很多。</p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">總之，不管是從交易難度、信息透明度、交易規(guī)模還是作用價值上來說，中長期交易都是電力現(xiàn)貨市場中的交易重點。</p> </div><div id="owg8q0a" class="e_container-12 s_layout"> <div id="owg8q0a" class="cbox-12-0 p_item"><p 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