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p_item"><div id="owg8q0a" class="e_container-6 s_layout"> <div id="owg8q0a" class="cbox-6-0 p_item"><h1 class="e_h1-10 s_subtitle"> 電力現(xiàn)貨市場中的反直覺現(xiàn)象（一）：高比例年度中長期交易不一定防風(fēng)險(xiǎn) </h1><div id="owg8q0a" class="e_container-3 s_layout"> <div id="owg8q0a" class="cbox-3-0 p_item"><p class="e_text-5 s_body"> 發(fā)布時(shí)間： </p></div> <div id="owg8q0a" class="cbox-3-1 p_item"><P class="e_timeFormat-4 s_title">2024-12-13 14:42</P></div> </div><div id="owg8q0a" class="e_richText-11 s_title"> <link rel="stylesheet" /><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:0px;orphans:2;text-align:justify;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;"><a style="background-color:transparent;color:rgb(21, 101, 192);text-decoration:none;" target="_blank">電力市場</a>中長期交易“全簽”指保障足量簽約，年度以上中長期合同力爭簽約電量不低于前三年用電量平均值的80%，通過月度合同簽訂保障合同簽約電量不低于90%-95%。</p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:justify;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">隨著集中式新能源、分布式光伏的大規(guī)?？焖僭鲩L，電力系統(tǒng)供需與發(fā)電成本在月、日、時(shí)等不同尺度都存在波動(dòng)，而這些波動(dòng)往往難以準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測，低頻的全簽中長期交易往往使得交易主體暴露在更大的不確定性中，從而增加量價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。</p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:justify;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;"><strong style="font-weight:bolder;">一、年度中長期全簽失效案例</strong></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:justify;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">如圖1所示，某<a style="background-color:transparent;color:rgb(21, 101, 192);text-decoration:none;" target="_blank">電力現(xiàn)貨市場</a>試點(diǎn)省份2022年的年度（發(fā)生在21年底）、月度中長期簽約均價(jià)與現(xiàn)貨日前價(jià)格的對比，其中年度長協(xié)價(jià)為497元/兆瓦時(shí)，月度中長期綜合價(jià)在534元/兆瓦時(shí)附近，現(xiàn)貨日前月均價(jià)541元/兆瓦時(shí)，現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格高于中長期簽約價(jià)格。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://omo-oss-image.thefastimg.com/portal-saas/new2023020615362044746/cms/image/72bffcff-4346-4c9d-81e5-112c26b2ce5f.png"></figure><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:center;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">圖1 某省2022年中長期與現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格對比</p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:justify;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">由于年度中長期交易價(jià)格、月度中長期價(jià)格與現(xiàn)貨市場日前價(jià)格存在巨大的偏差，年度價(jià)差超40元/MWh，<strong style="font-weight:bolder;">“全簽”比例越高，發(fā)電側(cè)面臨的低電價(jià)虧損風(fēng)險(xiǎn)越明顯。</strong></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:justify;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">如圖2所示，該省2023年的年度（發(fā)生在22年底）、月度中長期簽約均價(jià)與現(xiàn)貨日前價(jià)格的對比，其中年度長協(xié)價(jià)為554元/兆瓦時(shí)，月度中長期綜合價(jià)在512元/兆瓦時(shí)附近，現(xiàn)貨日前月均價(jià)433元/兆瓦時(shí)，中長期價(jià)格高于現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://omo-oss-image.thefastimg.com/portal-saas/new2023020615362044746/cms/image/69beab2d-38e7-4230-abad-4d261bdbcb76.png"></figure><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:center;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">圖2 某省2023年中長期與現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格對比</p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:justify;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">由于年度中長期交易價(jià)格、月度中長期價(jià)格與現(xiàn)貨市場日前價(jià)格存在巨大的偏差，年度價(jià)差超100元/MWh，<strong style="font-weight:bolder;">“全簽”比例越高，用戶側(cè)面臨的高電價(jià)虧損風(fēng)險(xiǎn)越明顯。</strong></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:justify;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">如圖3所示，該省2024年的年度（發(fā)生在23年底）年度長協(xié)價(jià)為462元/兆瓦時(shí)，月度中長期綜合價(jià)在425元/兆瓦時(shí)附近，現(xiàn)貨日前月均價(jià)344元/兆瓦時(shí)，尤其是是從今年7月開始，售電公司簽約的月度雙邊、集中競價(jià)交易均價(jià)已經(jīng)下探到372元/兆瓦時(shí)。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://omo-oss-image.thefastimg.com/portal-saas/new2023020615362044746/cms/image/c3b6f53c-714f-4952-9d7d-bd72245f073c.png"></figure><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:center;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">圖3 某省2024年中長期與現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格對比</p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:justify;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">由于年度中長期交易價(jià)格、月度中長期價(jià)格與現(xiàn)貨市場日前價(jià)格存在巨大的偏差，年度價(jià)差超100元/MWh，“全簽”比例越高，用戶側(cè)面臨的高電價(jià)虧損風(fēng)險(xiǎn)越明顯。</p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:justify;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;"><strong style="font-weight:bolder;">二、全簽失效原因分析：</strong></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:justify;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;"><strong style="font-weight:bolder;">難以在年、月尺度進(jìn)行準(zhǔn)確的成本與價(jià)格預(yù)判</strong></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:justify;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;"><strong style="font-weight:bolder;">（一）供需與成本存在多周期波動(dòng)</strong></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:justify;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">受季節(jié)變化影響，新能源發(fā)電存在明顯的月度不均衡。除了新能源之外，電動(dòng)汽車用電負(fù)荷也存在較大的波動(dòng)，受氣候變化因素影響，終端負(fù)荷與水力發(fā)電的分月、分日與分時(shí)波動(dòng)也在進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)。</p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:justify;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">隨著新能源和水電供給數(shù)量變化，對火電與燃料的需求也在變化，這又進(jìn)一步影響到電力系統(tǒng)的發(fā)電成本。在新能源和水電發(fā)電多的時(shí)期（月、日、時(shí)），電價(jià)往往走低；新能源和水電發(fā)電不足的時(shí)期（月、日、時(shí)），電價(jià)經(jīng)常走高。</p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:justify;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">由于氣象本身波動(dòng)與難以預(yù)測，在年與月類似的長周期尺度開展供需與成本的預(yù)測，不管是政府機(jī)構(gòu)、電網(wǎng)公司還是市場主體，大家都很難做到。</p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:justify;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;"><strong style="font-weight:bolder;">（二）政策與規(guī)則的變化</strong></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:justify;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">年度交易前，省級層面或國家級層面通常會公布未來一年的最新版政策，新版政策多數(shù)情況下會對某一情況進(jìn)行針對性調(diào)整，例如24年國家新出的容量電價(jià)補(bǔ)償政策、滾動(dòng)撮合交易放寬限價(jià)、新增發(fā)電側(cè)買入/用電側(cè)賣出電量約束等政策，均會對市場流動(dòng)性、市場報(bào)價(jià)行為、市場情緒產(chǎn)生較大的影響。站在中長期交易決策的角度，這些調(diào)整所帶來的影響其實(shí)不能完全被預(yù)測到，那么在決策時(shí)得到的結(jié)論可能是存在偏差的。</p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:justify;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">另外如某些省份設(shè)定的年度交易成交電量需大于65%的硬性規(guī)則下，直接影響是市場主體損失了在近期交易窗口獲利的機(jī)會成本；間接影響是市場主體如需在近期窗口調(diào)整倉位，但近期窗口缺少流動(dòng)性，則需承受高額平倉虧損或無調(diào)倉機(jī)會。</p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:justify;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;"><strong style="font-weight:bolder;">（三）簽約期價(jià)格波動(dòng)影響市場主體心理</strong></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:justify;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">長簽交易在絕大部分省份還是以雙邊協(xié)商的交易方式開展，依賴于場外信息互通和市場主體情緒，在脫離完全理性、完全市場化的情況下，長簽交易價(jià)格很容易受到近期現(xiàn)貨市場價(jià)格走勢的影響，年度交易前部分發(fā)電側(cè)主體常常會通過抬價(jià)造勢達(dá)到此目的。</p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:justify;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">由此看來，由于缺少有效監(jiān)管，近期市場的價(jià)格走勢在未來的持續(xù)性其實(shí)有待商榷，而若根據(jù)近期走勢產(chǎn)生錨定策略，忽視未來變化帶來的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)則是非常危險(xiǎn)的。</p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:justify;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;"><strong style="font-weight:bolder;">三、合理的中長期交易模式建議</strong></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:justify;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;"><strong style="font-weight:bolder;">（一）繼續(xù)明確中長期簽約比例</strong></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:justify;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">在電力現(xiàn)貨市場的過渡期，還是需要明確全簽比例要求，并且既明確月度累計(jì)電量簽約要求，同時(shí)也明確月度分時(shí)電量簽約要求，口徑以年、月、周三種交易的月度統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)為準(zhǔn)。保障充分發(fā)揮中長期交易的壓艙石作用，幫助控制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、穩(wěn)定市場。</p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:justify;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;"><strong style="font-weight:bolder;">（二）增加中長期交易頻度</strong></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:justify;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">不要求在年、月等少數(shù)交易窗口完成高比例的交易量，而是通過引入年度、月度、周旬、日滾動(dòng)等多種交易周期，增進(jìn)市場交易窗口數(shù)量，讓市場主體可以方便地根據(jù)自身的發(fā)用特性選擇合適的窗口進(jìn)行交易。</p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:justify;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;"><strong style="font-weight:bolder;">（三）改變交易方式，保障簽約公平性</strong></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:justify;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">為了保證中長期交易的公平性，尤其是避免發(fā)售一體公司與獨(dú)立售電公司面臨的簽約價(jià)格差異過大，在初期可以減少雙邊、摘掛牌、傳統(tǒng)集中競價(jià)（競價(jià)曲線與實(shí)際情況不匹配）等交易方式的成交量，以集中式的分時(shí)段滾動(dòng)撮合交易作為最主要的交易方式，從而有效提升市場流動(dòng)性，更好地發(fā)現(xiàn)價(jià)格，指引市場成員進(jìn)行有效的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理。</p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:justify;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;"><strong style="font-weight:bolder;">（四）優(yōu)化中長期交易價(jià)格上下限</strong></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:justify;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">中長期交易上下限不能設(shè)置傳統(tǒng)的統(tǒng)一上下限，而應(yīng)當(dāng)分時(shí)段設(shè)置，避免不同交易曲線面臨不同的競爭限制。同時(shí)中長期交易價(jià)格需要與現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格在邏輯保持一致，也就是圍繞電能量價(jià)值設(shè)置限制，而不能在中長期價(jià)格中包含輔助服務(wù)、容量補(bǔ)償?shù)绕渌糠帧?/p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:justify;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;"><strong style="font-weight:bolder;">（五）區(qū)別開展補(bǔ)償型與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制型中長期交易</strong></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微軟雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:30px 0px 0px;orphans:2;text-align:justify;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:2em;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">補(bǔ)償型合約重在對新能源和改革成本等因素的適量適度補(bǔ)償，是電能量價(jià)格之外的因素。而正常的中長期交易目的在于幫助市場成員進(jìn)行電能量市場的價(jià)格發(fā)現(xiàn)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理。因此對應(yīng)類似于PPA等補(bǔ)償型中長期合約，他們的簽約方式可以單獨(dú)考慮，不能把補(bǔ)償型合同與正常的中長期交易放在一起組織。</p> </div><div id="owg8q0a" class="e_container-12 s_layout"> <div id="owg8q0a" class="cbox-12-0 p_item"><p class="e_text-13 s_title"> </p></div> </div><div id="owg8q0a" class="e_container-22 s_layout"> <div id="owg8q0a" class="cbox-22-0 p_item"><div id="owg8q0a" class="e_container-26 s_layout"> <div id="owg8q0a" class="cbox-26-0 p_item"><p class="e_text-28 s_title"> 上一頁 </p></div> <div id="owg8q0a" class="cbox-26-1 p_item"><p class="e_text-27 s_title"> <a href="/News_detail/138.html" target="_self"> 電力現(xiàn)貨市場中的反直覺現(xiàn)象（二）：“多掙錢”就是講政治 </a> </p></div> </div></div> <div id="owg8q0a" 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